Presidential polling is an inaccurate but important science. We all want to support winners, but when many of these pre-election polls come out, the margin of error is so high that the results end up skewed. In a recent presidential election poll, however, the margin of error was well within the realm of acceptable. The results, were less acceptable.

The poll, conducted by Emerson College, covered three crucial states for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump in the upcoming November election: Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Unfortunately, the results show that these Rust Belt states are hotly contested.

Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania by only a combined 8 percentage points in both states. Clinton polls at 45 percent in Michigan compared to Trump's 40 percent, and she polls higher at 46 percent in Pennsylvania compared to Trump's 43 percent.

But in Ohio, Trump and Clinton are deadlocked at 43 percent each. The margin of error in this most-recent Emerson College poll is predicted to be 3.4 percentage points.

That means that all three states just became that much more important for Trump supporters and the Trump campaign.

Clinton, of course, is leading with women. That's no surprise given her campaign's insistence that she is breaking ground as the first female candidate of a major political party. Trump, on the other hand, leads with men, which also doesn't surprise pollsters, given his persona of power and success.

However, Trump's opening for success could close tightly due to the polling of Gary Johnson, the Libertarian party's candidate. Johnson collected a significant percentage of polled votes in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Johnson polled at 10 percent in Ohio, 7 percent in Michigan and 7 percent in Pennsylvania.

Conservatives have to hope that Johnson's rise in support don't hand the White House to Hillary Clinton in the same manner that Ross Perot's votes led to a Democratic-led White House just a few decades ago.

Either way, voters in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania just became a lot more important to all the presidential campaigns involved.

h/t: The Hill



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